The World Updated

Having a non-boring job that doesn’t allow my mind to wander during the day has significantly cut into the time I have to think of items about which to post. I’m still searching for balance (aren’t we all!), but rest assured I fully intend to restore this blog to its former glory...or at least, to the quality it was before the move.

The events in the world of energy over the last few months deserve some comment, as the situation has gone wildly out of control since I last wrote about it. You all know the numbers -- oil at record highs, gas at record highs -- and the boundless rhetoric as to the causes. Is it speculators, OPEC, the oil companies, supply constraints (i.e. Peak Oil), or something else? Honestly, we don’t know, but that’s the whole damn point -- we just don’t know if we hit production limits yet.

The best data available certainly seems to point to the idea that we have reached Peak Oil for all practical purposes. At the very least, demand is far outpacing supply and there is little that Westerners can cut out their lifestyles before a sharp collapse. Even the normally cornucopian IEA has recently turned doomer with regard to oil supply futures.

The story is similar with food. Grain stockpiles have collapsed, crops are failing, and food is in competition with fuel. What are the root causes? How can we fix it? The answers, despite assertions to the contrary, are complex and point only toward more complexity.
So what does this all mean? What do we do? We do exactly as we were planning beforehand: move toward a more sustainable, self-sufficient lifestyle. Without panic. To those who are new to Peak Oil and other concerns, my advice is the same.

From its inception, this blog has been about prudent planning, including multiple layers of planning. Personally, my family is far from where I would prefer with regards to living self-sufficiently, but we have devised numerous “fallback” positions depending on how events pan out. For example, we don’t yet have an independent water supply, but we have water filters for use with our stream if the city system fails. We don’t grow all the foods we want, but we’re learning about wild edibles. But the fundamental key to all of this preparation is psychological: you must be mentally prepared to accept a different standard of living in order to survive any contingency.

As the apparent slow crash continues, I offer the following humble advice:
1) Toss all red herrings in the Bass-O-Matic. The oil companies can’t change the oil prices; vast supplies of tar sands will never be produced at a meaningful rate; corn ethanol is not a cheap and responsible alternative to oil; and environmentalists aren’t preventing America from some miracle supply of oil that will save us from the Arab evildoers. The core issue is this: there is no more cheap energy. Adjust accordingly.

2) Modern farming techniques will eventually reach a breaking point. The cause of this occurrence is a dead heat between soil degradation, global warming-induced drought and flooding, oil shortages, fertilizer shortages, labor shortages, urban sprawl , and farm bankruptcies. In this race, every horse is a loser. Food shortages will happen in the near future. Eat accordingly.

3) Disasters will happen, be they tornadoes, floods, blizzards, hurricanes, earthquakes, plagues, famine, or energy shortages. Plan accordingly.

4) The economy will eventually suffer from significant inflation, deflation, or both. Spread your risk and for God’s sake, whatever you do, don’t skimp on the supplies you deem necessary for your planning. Live life for today, but plan for life tomorrow.