Tailoring the Peak Oil message

A few weeks ago I spoke at a screening of “The End of Suburbia” (see previous post). I felt it was, in general, a positive first experience at speaking on Peak Oil, but I did learn a few things about how to introduce the topic to people.

After the film, I jumped into giving a little more background on crude oil production and alternatives, as well as updates on the data since the film was produced. My motivation was to reinforce the case for the legitimacy of the imminent peak theory, but I was perhaps a bit too technical in my discussion.

When I discussed preparations for Peak Oil, I jumped right into talking about moving closer to your job, making soap, and growing your own food. This was perhaps a greater leap than for which the film had laid the groundwork. I could see by the looks on some people’s faces that it was a bit too much at once and they had shut off to any further information along those lines.

So, I discovered that even with a liberal-minded audience, a message like Peak Oil needs to be delivered carefully in order to capture a reasonable percentage receiving it. To that end, I would like to develop a Peak Oil primer that has a hope of capturing a wider audience than what we currently have available.

The following is my first attempt a Peak Oil primer for general audiences. I welcome any comments or criticisms, as this is a work in progress.

Peak Oil: A brief introduction

All oilfields follow a pattern of production increase, maximum, and decline. The shape and magnitude of the extraction profile may be affected by factors such as how fast the oil is extracted, the type of wells used, or whether other technology is used, but production does eventually reach a maximum rate.

An aggregate of oilfields follow a similar profile. For instance, the lower 48 United States reached their combined peak crude oil production in 1970 and have maintained a steady decline since that time. Similarly, the world must eventually reach its peak oil production rate, commonly referred to as “Peak Oil”.

The issues raised by Peak Oil are many and varied. A key concern is that alternatives to oil require significant lead time in order to develop suitable infrastructure. However, even with the proper lead time, no known alternatives can match the energy density, portability, low cost, and versatility of oil (petroleum is a primary ingredient in plastics, chemicals, fertilizers, and many other items). Scaling up the existing alternatives (such as ethanol, solar- or wind-electric, hydrogen, etc.) requires enormous investment and re-tooling.

The consequences of a failure to meet the demand for oil are serious. The economy is strongly dependent on oil; no sector of our modern society is untouched by it. Transport of commodities, whether by truck, train, plane, or ship requires oil. For instance, the average piece of food travels 1500 miles before reaching your dinner plate. Travel and tourism, without oil, evaporates. And given the increasingly globalized natured of our economy, even a minor increase in the cost of doing business has wide-ranging effects.

The best available data indicates production will peak within the next 5 – 10 years. As it currently stands, we have yet to produce more crude oil than in May 2005 -- the longest production slump since the 1970s. If the data indicating an imminent peak is accurate, we have very little lead time with which to develop solutions. In any case, the true date of the peak won’t be known until some years after passing it, at which point it will be too late to effect large-scale solutions.

Even if the optimistic predictions are correct (i.e. peak after 2030), if Peak Oil occurs before alternatives can be brought to meet rising demand, there will exist a shortage in available energy. Such a shortage, temporary or permanent, could have profound effects on the way we live.

Preparing for such circumstances need not bring on despair or fear of the future. Everything necessary to remain ready for post-Peak Oil effects tends to increase quality of life rather than being a burden. These changes can be brought about gradually: learn to garden your own food, examine ways to reduce your gasoline consumption, improve the efficiency of electricity consumption, install renewable energy sources, or investigate any of hundreds of small ways to reduce the impact of Peak Oil on your life.

The internet and libraries are rich with information on how to live more sustainably. The most important factor to remember, however, is to plan carefully to minimize the impact of both Peak Oil and preparations for it. It is folly to assume that oil will be plentiful for another 20 years; yet it is equally foolish to deconstruct your life and head for the hills tomorrow. Many thousands of people (a group growing in number every day) are searching for the proper solutions to mitigate Peak Oil and other coming crises, all of which are willing to share their knowledge and experience.

Peak Oil has the potential to seriously alter our society, but it need not alter our happiness.

“Reality is that which, when you stop believing in it, doesn’t go away.” -- Philip K. Dick