Reality Stings

Peak Oil and global warming are enormous problems, but are still only part of a network of impending disasters -- all of which appear ready to juxtapose at the exact same instant. Between the riveting news debates over Donald Trump’s hair and the wardrobe malfunctions of Britney Spears, there recently appeared one of the most frightening (and shockingly underreported) news stories in recent memory: populations of the North American Honeybee -- the workhorse pollinator of American agriculture -- are plummeting rapidly.

As sources like CNN noted casually, pollinator species (including honeybees) have been in persistent decline for decades due to factors such as an invasive parasitic mite. But the mite is now ruled out as the cause for the current collapse -- the main suspects include commercial pesticides, genetically modified crops, or an unknown pathogen. Given the past evidence of pesticides’ effects on bees, my money lies on careless commercial operations indiscriminately spraying killer chemicals.

Not only does this again highlight another folly of monoculture (relying on a single species), it also puts the world of agriculture in a quandary: do they halt the use of most pesticides and allow being forced into producing foods organically or accept the permanent loss of a species critical to much of the industry. Sadly, I think most involved in industrial agriculture would more readily accept species extinction than allow the loss of their precious pesticides.

As I said, several crises are coming to a head. Let’s take a tally of several that will directly affect us this year:

Honeybee collapse: With a 50% - 90% colony mortality rate per beekeeper, the effect on the $14 billion of crops such as almonds, oranges, cherries, others will be significant. Prices for these commodities are increasing and will continue to increase as the die-off continues.

Hard freeze in California: $1 billion of oranges, avocadoes, grapefruit, lemons, and others were wiped out just a few months ago. Prices have not yet fully hit the market.

Wheat shortage: Global wheat reserves are at their lowest levels in decades, and prices are rising. Keep an eye out for the next USDA report in June. Continuing drought in Australia is also pressing harder on wheat prices.

Massive drought: Tying in with the last item, Australia -- one of the world’s major breadbaskets -- in the midst of a devastating drought.

Global warming: Steadily rising temperature are lowering agricultural yields.

Ethanol growth: Corn ethanol production is surging and placing pressure on corn prices. Ethanol demand also reduces the plantings of other crops like soybeans and wheat, further driving up prices for those commodities. And don’t forget the effects on chicken, pork, and beef prices.

Peak Oil/Iranian war: Whether or not we’ve reached Peak Oil, prices are volatile and will only continue the trend towards high levels.

The bottom line: food prices will soar this year, and there is little room for argument on this point. My personal prediction for 2007 is a doubling of the inflation rate, but still no real change in the daily routines for most people. The really bad stuff starts next year.