It was just over one year ago that I stumbled upon the theory of imminent Peak Oil. At the time, I was performing research for a novel exploring the idea of a second American Civil War driven by the issue of global warming. I was reading an article on sustainability which contained a passing reference to the term Peak Oil. Sensing a convenient plot expansion for my book, I typed it into a search engine, clicked on Matt Savinar’s Life After the Oil Crash, and proceeded to watch my concept of the structure of world society unravel thread by thread.
The more I learned, the more concerned I grew. I struggled to find where my place would be amongst both the international Peak Oil community and the world that would exist after the peak. I recall pacing around late one night on 2nd shift at work, pondering all the potential consequences and how to start going about preparing for them. Finally, staring at my collection of textbooks, a strategy came to me: Systems Engineering.
I started a blog a couple months later as a way to collect my thoughts and attempt to contribute something meaningful to efforts at finding solutions to Peak Oil and other problems. I admit that at first I had high hopes that I would make some money as a means to finance preparations, but reality and a change in perspective altered my aims: my revised goals for the site are to reinvest any money I earn in order to make the site better and more popular. The value of forming an on-line community is worth far more than cash.
Now one year later, the novel is on hold, my life goals have changed, and my (and my family’s) lifestyle is slowly shifting toward something that might one day be called sustainable. As you can see, the website has morphed into something a bit more than a blog and is starting to develop as a gathering place for sharing ideas and refining solutions. I would like to see this site evolve still further into a place for forming local communities and developing designs to completion.
So the question is where do we go from here? For starters, I would like to finish up the Peak Oil Homestead Project, so that you can see the full usefulness of Systems Engineering without having to take my word for it all the time. I would also like to explore some other applications, such as developing a sample community constitution, developing strategies for defense, and designing full communities.
In addition to the design projects, encouraging more discussion in the forums should be our prime goal. The more people we involve in discussions, the more chance we have of forming plans to jointly develop communities. We’re getting pretty good traffic lately (50 – 70 hits per day minimum), but there is little activity going on in the way of discussion. If you have any suggestions for improvement, I welcome them.
Also, if you desire, this seems like a good time for you to share your own Peak Oil discovery story and discuss your current concerns. We all have anxieties about what might happen in the near future as the economy starts to shut down, and we might be able to jointly develop some strategies.
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thanks
Thanks for the comment, Engineer. Interesting site you've got here. It seems that you stumbled upon peak oil in much the same way I did, by chance, by some random accident. I sometimes wish I hadn't begun digging into this topic. It also seems to me that only a few of us are on the leading edge of thinking about this looming challenge.
I agree
There are plenty of descriptions of the problem, but we're really only just beginning to see large-scale efforts at organized solutions. But we are getting more organized, which is a big step.
It seems the more I know about Peak Oil, global warming, the nature of our food, and so forth, the less I want to know. I start to get the feeling of knowing a train wreck is about to happen but having no ability to stop it. It's also hard to know whether we'll be on train or off it when it hits...
Coping with Loss
My feeling is that it will be a slow change at first, but then become more oppressive with time. Best to take advantage of the relatively inexpensive resources you can access now, than to get bogged down in despairing over the long-term consequences. Mind you, this is after I spent years depressed and inactive over it.
lifeaftertheoilcrash.net was
lifeaftertheoilcrash.net was what did it for me as well. I haven't been participating because I've been considering the idea of not communicating with anyone via reading/writing, for the distance it puts between people, making us see each other as resources of knowledge or entertainment instead of appreciating the true resource of friendship. I abandoned that idea, but to an extent the medium of writing/video is overused, like cars, chose for their flashiness despite that their use irreparably disables other programs that could accomplish the same task better. For instance, libraries are sinkholes of information from which very little "doing" escapes, because free information is not coupled with free resources, it's out of balance. Turning to direct in-person learning balances that out.
That pessimism that is created by looking at this problem is probably the reason why this site isn't developing quickly. There are so many things to say about this issue, these forums could easily explode with topics if the currents of hobby led people here. That pessimism led me to inaction on this issue I consider essential to solve, which led to boredom, which attracted me to simple instinctual pleasures that don't hinder my mood, like sports, analyzing MMA fights at sherdog.com instead of analyzing collaboration at peakoildesign.com.
The core of the peak oil issue is that humanity are little kids who don't want to share their toys and want to keep their toy collection on par with everyone else, in other words, the lack of friendship in the world, we just don't get along, and will continue consuming our way to the edge of the Peak Oil cliff, basically as long as everyone on TV is doing it. That competitive spirit is embodied in reality shows, they're almost all competition focused. As Doug Stanhope said, "You wouldn't watch Opera, but if they made a 'Battle of the Operas'..." I had been focusing on understanding the human condition rather than the technical solutions to Peak Oil, but recently I understood how building something for someone else willingly is a good way to express friendship, doing what you love as your occupation, and that has become my preoccupation, at all times asking myself what do I want to build with what I have available, and that makes me optimist because I can always build something.
Start Where You Are
I believe it was shortly after GW was "elected" for the first time that I fell upon the Peak Oil news. Most likely when I was reading up on motivations for the Iraq war. Is it a coincidence that GW also stands for Global Warming?
But the truly weird thing is that in high school a teacher of mine suggested I write a report on M. King Hubbert, the guy who originally predicted oil production peaking. So I guess I actually first heard about it (here I am dating myself) around the time of the first gulf war.
So part of me has been in preparation-mode all of that time. I've always driven minimally, lived close to work, walked for groceries a lot, etc. But only recently (current Iraq war) did I realize how deeply it would influence our lives. After the initial shock and depression, my husband and I have just taken it "one day at a time" and started working toward where we'd rather be in life, when it comes time to deal with the shtf.
We are making more determined strides now, but with that we are taking risks and downgrading our "lifestyle". It isn't easy, but we feel it will become essential soon enough. We are realizing that for us, we will have to piece things together slowly, scavenge for materials, and start living as if we were dirt poor. Creativity will play a big role in whatever infrastructure we design. Luckily we are creative, resourceful, and my husband is an engineer-in-training (only needs to pass one last exam to be licensed).
PE
One thing I regret is not taking the professional engineer route. One thought I've had for the future is to work as an engineering consultant designing houses, homesteads, tools, whatever -- but legally that requires a professional engineering certificate. Nothing like that is required for working in a large organization like NASA (or any aerospace company), but in order to represent yourself to the public as an engineering organization you must have a professional engineer on staff. Of course, if Peak Oil hits hard, regulations won't mean squat...
Internships
My husband avoided engineering in college. With a Physics degree and experience in construction, it seemed to me that engineering was a good use of his talents, so I encouraged him to get a job in an engineering firm. In addition to a few classes here and there, he has mostly just learned on the job. He's taken, I think, one major exam (I can't remember if there were any others) and passed with flying colors. I'm pretty confident that work experience is just as good, if not better, than a college degree. Long story short -- I think your plan, PE, is a good one.
I suspect people will still want structures built solidly, if not built more solidly, considering chaotic weather patterns that should ensue with global warming. Just my opinion. Also, in the near term, I think enviornmental regulations might get more difficult to navigate, requiring professional permit assistance.